Finding Certainty in the Uncertain: 2026 At a Glance
Welcome to 2026. Does it feel any different yet? The news cycle is still churning, artificial intelligence is growing, and how we’re feeling about all of this is still always fluctuating. As we close out January, we can start to see some patterns in just how things are looking for the next 11 months.
Are the Bubbles Bursting?
The big business and government bubbles, that is. For years, the team at the Gulf South Index has reported on how America’s trust is always changing. And so far, this year is no different – as certain, often larger, institutions fall to the wayside, in favor of those closest to home.
Huddle Closer: According to the 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer, global audiences are turning inward – trusting only their closest circles, from friends to coworkers. Trust in government leaders is plummeting as a result of major world events occurring in the past five years. Even major news organizations have felt the heat of this change.
And while Americans still see big government as our biggest threat, at 57% according to Gallup, their perceived threat of big business is the fastest growing – up to 37%. Compare this with 10 years ago, only 26% of Americans saw big business as our biggest threat in 2016, with 67% threatened by the government. In just 10 years, we’ve started to see a major switch up.
And yet, we trust our own businesses more than ever, as we see with Edelman’s 11% and 9% net change in trust in our coworkers and CEOs, respectively. Regardless of how we may feel when we go to our job each day, we have an inherent trust for the people we spend so much time with – and in the leaders who move us forward on our most personal levels.
Community Matters: In the 2025 Gulf South Index report, we found 31% of both Gulf South and national respondents trust news from their friends and neighbors quite a lot. Not surprisingly, people are most trusting of other people, especially the ones we know and see every day – whether they live next door or sit in the office across the hall.
***
As for the economy…
Well, we’re still unsure. The past six years have been defined by that word: uncertainty. Inflation is rising; inflation is shrinking. Job market is up; job market is down. With so much back and forth, it can be hard to say for certain what 2026 will bring.
And the big names are (kind of) saying the same thing, with practically every economic voice predicting a different future for the coming year. But there’s one thing that remains consistent: the inconsistency. While many companies predict decent growth, as NPR notes, the ever-lingering fears can’t fully be ruled out yet: tariffs, AI, trade and a fluctuating job market, to name a few.
Are we “K”? Well, we seem to be, but not in the way you’re thinking. A K-shaped economy shows a diverging economic outlook, depending on demographics. As higher-income, often older Americans see their financial situations improve, the other end of the spectrum sees the opposite. This trend will continue in 2026, according to EY, as older populations continue to rise and working populations decline.
And it’s reflected in how we feel, with Deloitte finding most people anticipate continuing increased spending on household and personal necessities. Even with a positive global economic outlook, many average consumers are still feeling cost pressures in their day-to-day lives.
***
Back to the Huddle
If we look in closer to our personal finances, we might not like what we see. Regardless of what JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs predict, many of us are feeling the financial pain in our pockets. What does this lead to? Huddling in closer and relying – no surprise – on the people closest to us.
We’re helping each other out. According to Pew Research Center, 50% of adults say they are likely to loan money to a friend in an emergency. Even more are willing to help out a sick neighbor or friend, at 67%, and 76% are likely to assist with household tasks, such as bringing in mail or watering plants.
Opening our hearts, and our pockets. We’re donating our time and our money, too. Charitable donations, while slightly down from 2021, are still high with 76% of Americans who have donated money to a charitable cause in the last five years. Meanwhile, volunteering is on the way up, with 63% of Gallup respondents saying they’ve done so. While financial donations may skew to a wealthier population, the point still stands: the majority of Americans are willing to help those in need in their communities, despite the personal financial hardships they may be feeling.
***
So, in what might feel like another year defined by uncertainty above all, the continuing trend we’ve seen here at the Gulf South Index isn’t immune to the fluctuation. The closer to home, the better we feel resonates when looking at our neighbors and our communities but might not ring as true when it comes to our bank accounts and household purchases. But at the end of the day, that sense of community prevails, allowing us to help our neighbors in need, even when it seems harder than usual. Let’s hope we can carry that importance of community with us throughout 2026.
Welcome to 2026. Does it feel any different yet? The news cycle is still churning, artificial intelligence is growing, and how we’re feeling about all of this is still always fluctuating. As we close out January, we can start to see some patterns in just how things are looking for the next 11 months.
Are the Bubbles Bursting?
The big business and government bubbles, that is. For years, the team at the Gulf South Index has reported on how America’s trust is always changing. And so far, this year is no different – as certain, often larger, institutions fall to the wayside, in favor of those closest to home.
Huddle Closer: According to the 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer, global audiences are turning inward – trusting only their closest circles, from friends to coworkers. Trust in government leaders is plummeting as a result of major world events occurring in the past five years. Even major news organizations have felt the heat of this change.
And while Americans still see big government as our biggest threat, at 57% according to Gallup, their perceived threat of big business is the fastest growing – up to 37%. Compare this with 10 years ago, only 26% of Americans saw big business as our biggest threat in 2016, with 67% threatened by the government. In just 10 years, we’ve started to see a major switch up.
And yet, we trust our own businesses more than ever, as we see with Edelman’s 11% and 9% net change in trust in our coworkers and CEOs, respectively. Regardless of how we may feel when we go to our job each day, we have an inherent trust for the people we spend so much time with – and in the leaders who move us forward on our most personal levels.
Community Matters: In the 2025 Gulf South Index report, we found 31% of both Gulf South and national respondents trust news from their friends and neighbors quite a lot. Not surprisingly, people are most trusting of other people, especially the ones we know and see every day – whether they live next door or sit in the office across the hall.
***
As for the economy…
Well, we’re still unsure. The past six years have been defined by that word: uncertainty. Inflation is rising; inflation is shrinking. Job market is up; job market is down. With so much back and forth, it can be hard to say for certain what 2026 will bring.
And the big names are (kind of) saying the same thing, with practically every economic voice predicting a different future for the coming year. But there’s one thing that remains consistent: the inconsistency. While many companies predict decent growth, as NPR notes, the ever-lingering fears can’t fully be ruled out yet: tariffs, AI, trade and a fluctuating job market, to name a few.
Are we “K”? Well, we seem to be, but not in the way you’re thinking. A K-shaped economy shows a diverging economic outlook, depending on demographics. As higher-income, often older Americans see their financial situations improve, the other end of the spectrum sees the opposite. This trend will continue in 2026, according to EY, as older populations continue to rise and working populations decline.
And it’s reflected in how we feel, with Deloitte finding most people anticipate continuing increased spending on household and personal necessities. Even with a positive global economic outlook, many average consumers are still feeling cost pressures in their day-to-day lives.
***
Back to the Huddle
If we look in closer to our personal finances, we might not like what we see. Regardless of what JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs predict, many of us are feeling the financial pain in our pockets. What does this lead to? Huddling in closer and relying – no surprise – on the people closest to us.
We’re helping each other out. According to Pew Research Center, 50% of adults say they are likely to loan money to a friend in an emergency. Even more are willing to help out a sick neighbor or friend, at 67%, and 76% are likely to assist with household tasks, such as bringing in mail or watering plants.
Opening our hearts, and our pockets. We’re donating our time and our money, too. Charitable donations, while slightly down from 2021, are still high with 76% of Americans who have donated money to a charitable cause in the last five years. Meanwhile, volunteering is on the way up, with 63% of Gallup respondents saying they’ve done so. While financial donations may skew to a wealthier population, the point still stands: the majority of Americans are willing to help those in need in their communities, despite the personal financial hardships they may be feeling.
***
So, in what might feel like another year defined by uncertainty above all, the continuing trend we’ve seen here at the Gulf South Index isn’t immune to the fluctuation. The closer to home, the better we feel resonates when looking at our neighbors and our communities but might not ring as true when it comes to our bank accounts and household purchases. But at the end of the day, that sense of community prevails, allowing us to help our neighbors in need, even when it seems harder than usual. Let’s hope we can carry that importance of community with us throughout 2026.
Marc Ehrhardt
President
The Ehrhardt Group